21.04.25 - 25.04.25
Results of the previous week
| NQ +8.67% | Bitcoin +8.53% | NG +2.98% |
VIX -16.33% | XAUUSD -4.04% | WHEAT -2.42% |
Last week, US indices were up. Once again, news about Trump's trade war acted as a driver, but this time, it was in a positive direction. Trump is prepared to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods and hopes that similar actions will be taken in return. Hopes that trade between the two major powers will normalise supported positive sentiment in the stock market.
The dollar recovered in the forex market. This is partly due to the fact that, despite Trump's proposals, the head of the US Federal Reserve continues to adhere to the regulator's previously announced monetary policy position. The US central bank doesn't plan to start reducing rates before it sees the necessary conditions form.
Brent crude oil prices have started to decline again. Concerns about the global economy's prospects are once again putting pressure on the energy resource. Another negative factor for oil is some OPEC+ countries' acceleration of production volume increases, which will bolster the oil supply.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. GDP growth rate EUR/USD | DATE 30.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to show signs of weakness. The manufacturing PMI remains below 50, indicating a decline in this sector. Amid concerns about the impact of trade wars on the global economy and weak macroeconomic indicators in Germany, global analysts expect the country's annual GDP growth rate to remain negative. This means that the German economy will remain in recession, which will serve as a signal for the ECB to cut its key interest rate further. That's bad news for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1260. | |||||
| The US. ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/JPY | DATE 01.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is still quite strong, although signs that it's weakening are beginning to appear. The US manufacturing PMI has already fallen below 50, which signals the start of a downturn in the sector. Global analysts expect the indicator to decline further, which reflects weaker conditions in manufacturing. This is a signal for the Fed that an economic slowdown is beginning and that it may need to lower its key interest rate. This movement is bad news for the dollar. Against this background, USD/JPY may resume its decline to the level of 141.60. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 02.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market appears stable, and the economy is continuing to create new jobs. In the previous reporting period, the number exceeded expectations, coming in at 228,000 against a forecast of 100,000. During the reporting period, global analysts expect that fewer new jobs will be created than the month prior. A declining labour market would signal to the Fed that it's time to resume its quantitative easing cycle. This is unfavourable for the dollar, but it's good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD may begin to rise again towards 3340.00. | |||||
